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Reply to Comment by R. A. W. Haddon on "Evaluation of Models for Earthquake Source Spectra in Eastern North America" by Gail M. Atkinson and David M. Boore

Department of Earth Sciences
Carleton University
Ottawa, Ontario K1S 5B6
(G. M. A.)

U.S. Geological Survey
345 Middlefield Road
Menlo Park, California 94025
(D. M. B.)

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In his comment, Haddon attempts to refute the conclusions of our 1998 article, in which we evaluated proposed source models for eastern North America (ENA). We used a clearly defined procedure based on the well-known stochastic model to make ground-motion predictions based on each proposed source model, and then we compared the predicted motions with all recorded ENA data of M > 4. Haddon's objections to the stochastic approach, and more specifically to one of the evaluated source models (ours), are based on his theoretical interpretations. We disagree with almost all of Haddon's opinions and the manner in which he has expressed them. However we think that little will be gained by replying in detail. The technical details of our disagreement have already been discussed at some length (Atkinson et al., 1997; Haddon, 1997). So rather than providing a blow-by-blow rebuttal, we limit our reply to the following salient remarks.

Seismology is an observational science, wherein the validity of proposed ground-motion models is judged empirically, based on their ability to predict observed ground-motion data. The stochastic ground-motion model is a simple tool that combines a good deal of empiricism with a little seismology, and yet has been as successful as more sophisticated methods in predicting ground-motion amplitudes over a broad range of magnitudes, distances, frequencies and tectonic environments (e.g., Atkinson and Somerville, 1994; Hartzell et al., 1999). Many find this surprising; some find it infuriating.

Widespread interest in the stochastic model was aroused when McGuire and Hanks (1980), Hanks and McGuire (1981), Boore (1983), and McGuire et al. (1984) . . . [Full Text of this Article]