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Is There a Basis for Preferring Characteristic Earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter Distribution in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting?

U.S. Geological Survey, MS-999, 345 Middlefield Road, Menlo Park, California, 94025

The idea that faults rupture in repeated, characteristic earthquakes is central to most probabilistic earthquake forecasts. The concept is elegant in its simplicity, and if the same event has repeated itself multiple times in the past, we might anticipate the next. In practice however, assembling a fault-segmented characteristic earthquake rupture model can grow into a complex task laden with unquantified uncertainty. We weigh the evidence that supports characteristic earthquakes against a potentially simpler model made from extrapolation of a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude-frequency law to individual fault zones. We find that the Gutenberg–Richter model satisfies key data constraints used for earthquake forecasting equally well as a characteristic model. Therefore, judicious use of instrumental and historical earthquake catalogs enables large-earthquake-rate calculations with quantifiable uncertainty that should get at least equal weighting in probabilistic forecasting.

Related articles in Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America:

Comment on "Is There a Basis for Preferring Characteristic Earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter Distribution in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting" by Tom Parsons and Eric L. Geist

Jens-Uwe Klügel
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2010 100: 896-897. [Abstract] [Full Text]  

Reply to "Comment on ‘Is There a Basis for Preferring Characteristic Earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter Distribution in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting?’ by Tom Parsons and Eric L. Geist" by Jens-Uwe Klügel

Tom Parsons and Eric L. Geist
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2010 100: 898-899. [Extract] [Full Text]  

This article has been cited by other articles:

				J.-U. Klugel Comment on "Is There a Basis for Preferring Characteristic Earthquakes over a Gutenberg-Richter Distribution in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting" by Tom Parsons and Eric L. Geist Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, April 1, 2010; 100(2): 896 - 897. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				T. Parsons and E. L. Geist Reply to "Comment on 'Is There a Basis for Preferring Characteristic Earthquakes over a Gutenberg-Richter Distribution in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting?' by Tom Parsons and Eric L. Geist" by Jens-Uwe Klugel Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, April 1, 2010; 100(2): 898 - 899. [Full Text] [PDF]