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Estimation of the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude from the Geothermal Gradient

Department of Natural Science and Mathematics, Chubu University, Kasugai, Aichi 487-8501, Japan kudo{at}isc.chubu.ac.jp

Toshiyuki Tanaka

Tono Research Institute of Earthquake Science, 1-63, Yamanouchi, Akeyo-cho, Mizunami, Gifu 509-6132, Japan

Muneyoshi Furumoto

Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya City, 464-8601, Japan

The thickness of the brittle layer in the crust, which is related to the geothermal structure, should determine the maximum fault size or the maximum earthquake magnitude. A relationship between the maximum magnitude and the geothermal gradient is investigated. Using two catalogs of large events (M6.5) in the Japanese Islands, recent events from 1927 to 2005 and events from 1500 to 1927, we obtain the maximum magnitude M_max as a function of the geothermal gradient T_g (in degrees per kilometer): M_max=-1.67logT_g+9.93 and M_max=-1.67logT_g+10.43 for waiting durations of about 100 and 500 yr, respectively.