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Ground-Motion Modeling of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, Part II: Ground-Motion Estimates for the 1906 Earthquake and Scenario Events

U.S. Geological Survey, MS977, 345 Middlefield Rd., Menlo Park, California 94025

David Dolenc and Douglas Dreger

Seismological Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, 215 McCone Hall, Berkeley, California 94720

Robert W. Graves

URS Corporation, 566 El Dorado St., Pasadena, California 91101

Stephen Harmsen and Stephen Hartzell

U.S. Geological Survey, MS966, P.O. Box 25046, Golden, Colorado 80225

Shawn Larsen

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Box 808, L-103, Livermore, California 94551-0808

Kathleen McCandless

Computer Applications and Research Department, Computations Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Box 808, L-550, Livermore, California 94551-0808

Stefan Nilsson and N. Anders Petersson

Center for Applied Scientific Computing, Computations Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Box 808, L-550, Livermore, California 94551-0808

Arthur Rodgers

Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Department, Energy and Environment Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Box 808, L-205, Livermore, California 94551-0808

Björn Sjögreen

Center for Applied Scientific Computing, Computations Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Box 808, L-550, Livermore, California 94551-0808

Mary Lou Zoback

U.S. Geological Survey, MS977, 345 Middlefield Rd., Menlo Park, California 94025

Online Material: Source models, synthetic and observed displacements, modified Mercalli intensities, maps of SA and PGA, velocity waveforms, and movies of simulated wave propagation.

We estimate the ground motions produced by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake making use of the recently developed Song et al. (2008) source model that combines the available geodetic and seismic observations and recently constructed 3D geologic and seismic velocity models. Our estimates of the ground motions for the 1906 earthquake are consistent across five ground-motion modeling groups employing different wave propagation codes and simulation domains. The simulations successfully reproduce the main features of the Boatwright and Bundock (2005) ShakeMap, but tend to over predict the intensity of shaking by 0.1–0.5 modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) units. Velocity waveforms at sites throughout the San Francisco Bay Area exhibit characteristics consistent with rupture directivity, local geologic conditions (e.g., sedimentary basins), and the large size of the event (e.g., durations of strong shaking lasting tens of seconds). We also compute ground motions for seven hypothetical scenarios rupturing the same extent of the northern San Andreas fault, considering three additional hypocenters and an additional, random distribution of slip. Rupture directivity exerts the strongest influence on the variations in shaking, although sedimentary basins do consistently contribute to the response in some locations, such as Santa Rosa, Livermore, and San Jose. These scenarios suggest that future large earthquakes on the northern San Andreas fault may subject the current San Francisco Bay urban area to stronger shaking than a repeat of the 1906 earthquake. Ruptures propagating southward towards San Francisco appear to expose more of the urban area to a given intensity level than do ruptures propagating northward.

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