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1 U.S. Geological Survey
345
Middlefield Road, MS 999
Menlo Park, California
94025
egeist{at}usgs.gov
(E.L.G.,
F.F.P.)
2 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
7600 Sand Point Way
NE, Bldg. 3
Seattle, Washington 98115
(V.V.T., D.A.)
3 Joint Institute for the Study of the
Atmosphere and Oceans
University of Washington
Seattle, Washington
98195
(V.V.T., D.A.)
4 New Mexico Tech
Earth and
Environmental Science Department
Socorro, New Mexico
87801
(S.L.B.)
Results from different tsunami forecasting and hazard assessment models
are compared with observed tsunami wave heights from the 26 December 2004
Indian Ocean tsunami. Forecast models are based on initial earthquake
information
and are used to estimate tsunami wave heights during propagation. An empirical
forecast relationship based only on seismic moment provides a close estimate to
the
observed mean regional and maximum local tsunami runup heights for the 2004
Indian Ocean tsunami but underestimates mean regional tsunami heights at
azimuths
in line with the tsunami beaming pattern (e.g., Sri Lanka, Thailand). Standard
forecast
models developed from subfault discretization of earthquake rupture, in which
deep-
ocean sea level observations are used to constrain slip, are also tested.
Forecast
models of this type use tsunami time-series measurements at points in the deep
ocean.
As a proxy for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a transect of deep-ocean tsunami
amplitudes recorded by satellite altimetry is used to constrain slip along four
subfaults
of the M >9 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake. This proxy model
performs well in
comparison to observed tsunami wave heights, travel times, and inundation
patterns
at Banda Aceh. Hypothetical tsunami hazard assessments models based on end-
member estimates for average slip and rupture length (Mw
9.0–9.3) are compared
with tsunami observations. Using average slip (low end member) and rupture
length
(high end member) (Mw 9.14) consistent with many seismic,
geodetic, and tsunami
inversions adequately estimates tsunami runup in most regions, except the
extreme
runup in the western Aceh province. The high slip that occurred in the southern
part
of the rupture zone linked to runup in this location is a larger fluctuation
than expected
from standard stochastic slip models. In addition, excess moment release
(
9%)
deduced from geodetic studies in comparison to seismic moment estimates may
generate
additional tsunami energy, if the exponential time constant of slip is less than
approximately 1 hr. Overall, there is significant variation in assessed runup
heights
caused by quantifiable uncertainty in both first-order source parameters (e.g.,
rupture
length, slip-length scaling) and spatiotemporal complexity of earthquake
rupture.
This article has been cited by other articles:
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  S. L. Bilek, K. Satake, and K. Sieh Introduction to the Special Issue on the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake and the Indian Ocean Tsunami Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, January 1, 2007; 97(1A): S1 - S5. [Full Text] [PDF]
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A. Piatanesi and S. Lorito Rupture Process of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake from Tsunami Waveform Inversion Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, January 1, 2007; 97(1A): S223 - S231. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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T. Seno and K. Hirata Did the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake Involve a Component of Tsunami Earthquakes? Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, January 1, 2007; 97(1A): S296 - S306. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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