Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
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Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America; December 2005; v. 95; no. 6; p. 2040-2057; DOI: 10.1785/0120050017
© 2005 Seismological Society of America
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Model Uncertainties of the 2002 Update of California Seismic Hazard Maps

Tianqing Cao1, Mark D. Petersen2 and Arthur D. Frankel2

1 California Geological Survey
801 K Street, MS 12-32
Sacramento, California 95814
 (T.C.)

2 U.S. Geological Survey
Box 25046 Federal Center, MS 966
Denver, Colorado 80225
 (M.D.P., A.D.F.)

In this article we present and explore the source and ground-motion model uncertainty and parametric sensitivity for the 2002 update of the California probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Our approach is to implement a Monte Carlo simulation that allows for independent sampling from fault to fault in each simulation. The source-distance dependent characteristics of the uncertainty maps of seismic hazard are explained by the fundamental uncertainty patterns from four basic test cases, in which the uncertainties from one-fault and two-fault systems are studied in detail. The California coefficient of variation (COV, ratio of the standard deviation to the mean) map for peak ground acceleration (10% of exceedance in 50 years) shows lower values (0.1–0.15) along the San Andreas fault system and other class A faults than along class B faults (0.2–0.3). High COV values (0.4–0.6) are found around the Garlock, Anacapa-Dume, and Palos Verdes faults in southern California and around the Maacama fault and Cascadia subduction zone in northern California.




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