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On the Use of Logic Trees for Ground-Motion Prediction Equations in Seismic-Hazard Analysis

¹ Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering
Imperial College London
South Kensington campus
London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
 (J.J.B.)

² Inst. Geowissenschaften
Universität Potsdam
P.O. Box 601553
D-14415, Potsdam, Germany
 (F.S.)

³ NORSAR/ICG
P.O. Box 53
N-2027 Kjeller, Norway
 (H.B.)

⁴ Laboratoire de Géophysique Interne et Tectonophysique
Université Joseph Fourier
BP 53, F-38041, Grenoble, France
 (F.C.)

⁵ Dipartimento della Protezione Civile
Servizio Sismico Nazionale
Via Vitorchiano 4
Rome 00189, Italy
 (F.S.)

⁶ Geosciences Department
Pacific Gas & Electricity Co.
San Francisco, California 94177
 (N.A.A.)

Logic trees are widely used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis as a tool to capture the epistemic uncertainty associated with the seismogenic sources and the ground-motion prediction models used in estimating the hazard. Combining two or more ground-motion relations within a logic tree will generally require several conversions to be made, because there are several definitions available for both the predicted ground-motion parameters and the explanatory parameters within the predictive ground-motion relations. Procedures for making conversions for each of these factors are presented, using a suite of predictive equations in current use for illustration. The sensitivity of the resulting ground-motion models to these conversions is shown to be pronounced for some of the parameters, especially the measure of source-to-site distance, highlighting the need to take into account any incompatibilities among the selected equations. Procedures are also presented for assigning weights to the branches in the ground-motion section of the logic tree in a transparent fashion, considering both intrinsic merits of the individual equations and their degree of applicability to the particular application.

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