Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
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Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America; February 2005; v. 95; no. 1; p. 135-144; DOI: 10.1785/0120040054
© 2005 Seismological Society of America
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Numerical Analysis of Overpressure Development in the New Madrid Seismic Zone

Lorraine W. Wolf1, Ming-Kuo Lee1, Sharon Browning*,1 and Martitia P. Tuttle2

1 Department of Geology and Geography
210 Petrie Hall
Auburn University
Auburn, Alabama 36849
 (L.W.W., M.-K.L., S.B.)

2 M. P. Tuttle and Associates
128 Tibbetts Lane
Georgetown, Maine 04548
 (M.P.T.)

* Present address: University of Memphis, Memphis, Tennessee 38112.

We use mathematical and numerical modeling techniques to evaluate overpressure resulting from topographic-driven flow in the Mississippi Embayment and discuss potential implications for wave propagation and seismic hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ). The mathematical model implies that the magnitude of excess pore pressure in the discharge area is determined by a basin’s geometry and the hydraulic conductivity of basin strata. Our modeling results explain how excess pore pressures can be sustained in a wide discharge area of the NMSZ by regional gravity flow. When a vertical fault zone is included in the model, the predicted magnitude of excess pressure is generally consistent with observed elevation heads (10–30 m) of artesian wells that penetrate the Upper Cretaceous and Paleozoic aquifers in the basin. The modeling results demonstrate that overpressures developed in Cambrian-Silurian carbonate rocks in the central embayment could be communicated to shallower layers if basin-wide confining units are locally breached by faults. We suggest that the stratigraphic conditions responsible for overpressure development may significantly influence the hydrologic response of the basin during large earthquake events.






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