HOME HELP FEEDBACK SUBSCRIPTIONS ARCHIVE SEARCH TABLE OF CONTENTS		QUICK SEARCH:   [advanced] Author: Keyword(s): Year:  Vol:  Page:

This Article Figures Only Full Text Full Text (PDF) An erratum has been published Citation Map Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Similar articles in ISI Web of Science Alert me to new issues of the journal Download to citation manager Citing Articles Citing Articles via HighWire Citing Articles via ISI Web of Science (10) Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by Cramer, C. H. Search for Related Content GeoRef GeoRef Citation

Site-Specific Seismic-Hazard Analysis that is Completely Probabilistic

U.S. Geological Survey
3876 Central Avenue, Suite 2
Memphis, Tennessee 38152-3050

Manuscript received 8 October 2002.

When a site-specific probabilistic ground-motion estimate is required, the full site-amplification distribution should be used instead of a single deterministic median value. A probabilistic methodology using site-amplification distributions to modify rock ground-motion attenuation relations into site-specific relations prior to calculating seismic hazard has been developed and applied at two selected sites in the central United States: Memphis, Tennessee, and Paducah, Kentucky. The use of a completely probabilistic approach can make about a 10% difference in ground-motion estimates over simply multiplying a bedrock probabilistic ground motion by a median site-amplification factor at a 1 in 2475 annual probability of exceedance and even larger differences at smaller probabilites of exceedance. The value of this approach is that a probabilistic answer incorporating the uncertainty in our knowledge of site amplification of ground motions can be calculated.

This article has been cited by other articles:

				Y. M.A. Hashash, C.-C. Tsai, C. Phillips, and D. Park Soil-Column Depth-Dependent Seismic Site Coefficients and Hazard Maps for the Upper Mississippi Embayment Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, August 1, 2008; 98(4): 2004 - 2021. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				C. H. Cramer, G. J. Rix, and K. Tucker Probabilistic Liquefaction Hazard Maps for Memphis, Tennessee Seismological Research Letters, May 1, 2008; 79(3): 416 - 423. [Full Text] [PDF]

				D. Arroyo and M. Ordaz Inelastic-Strength Spectra in Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analysis Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, December 1, 2007; 97(6): 2171 - 2181. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				C. H. Cramer Quantifying the Uncertainty in Site Amplification Modeling and Its Effects on Site-Specific Seismic-Hazard Estimation in the Upper Mississippi Embayment and Adjacent Areas Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, December 1, 2006; 96(6): 2008 - 2020. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				C. Beauval, S. Hainzl, and F. Scherbaum The Impact of the Spatial Uniform Distribution of Seismicity on Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Estimation Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, December 1, 2006; 96(6): 2465 - 2471. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				D. Robinson, T. Dhu, and J. Schneider Practical Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis: A Demonstration of Capability Seismological Research Letters, July 1, 2006; 77(4): 453 - 459. [Full Text] [PDF]

				H.-H. Tsang and A. M. Chandler Site-Specific Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Assessment: Direct Amplitude-Based Approach Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, April 1, 2006; 96(2): 392 - 403. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				W. J. Stephenson, J. N. Louie, S. Pullammanappallil, R. A. Williams, and J. K. Odum Blind Shear-Wave Velocity Comparison of ReMi and MASW Results with Boreholes to 200 m in Santa Clara Valley: Implications for Earthquake Ground-Motion Assessment Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, December 1, 2005; 95(6): 2506 - 2516. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				C. H. Cramer Site-Specific Seismic-Hazard Analysis that is Completely Probabilistic Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, October 1, 2005; 95(5): 2026 - 2026. [Full Text] [PDF]

				P. Bazzurro* and C. A. Cornell Nonlinear Soil-Site Effects in Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analysis Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, December 1, 2004; 94(6): 2110 - 2123. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]