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zmit, Turkey, Earthquake: A 3D Dynamic Stress Transfer Model of Intraearthquake Triggering
U.S. Geological Survey
Menlo Park, California
(R.A.H.)
University of Southern California
Los Angeles, California
(J.F.D., R.H.)
San Diego State University
San Diego, California
(S.M.D.)
Manuscript received 30 August 2000.
Before the August 1999 
zmit (Kocaeli), Turkey, earthquake, theoretical studies of earthquake ruptures and geological observations had provided estimates of how far an earthquake might jump to get to a neighboring fault. Both numerical simulations and geological observations suggested that 5 km might be the upper limit if there were no transfer faults. The zmit earthquake appears to have followed these expectations. It did not jump across any step-over wider than 5 km and was instead stopped by a narrower step-over at its eastern end and possibly by a stress shadow caused by a historic large earthquake at its western end. Our 3D spontaneous rupture simulations of the 1999 zmit earthquake provide two new insights: (1) the west- to east-striking fault segments of this part of the North Anatolian fault are oriented so as to be low-stress faults and (2) the easternmost segment involved in the August 1999 rupture may be dipping. An interesting feature of the zmit earthquake is that a 5-km-long gap in surface rupture and an adjacent 25° restraining bend in the fault zone did not stop the earthquake. The latter observation is a warning that significant fault bends in strike-slip faults may not arrest future earthquakes.
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