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Time-Independent and Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard in Greece Based on Seismogenic Sources

I.T.S.A.K.
P.O. Box 53 Foinikas
GR-55102 Thessaloniki, Greece
e-mail: chpapai{at}itsak.gr
(Ch.A.P)

Geophysical Laboratory
University of Thessaloniki
GR-54006 Thessaloniki, Greece
(B.C.P.)

An improved procedure is followed to assess time-independent and time-dependent hazard for 144 broad sites (cities, towns, villages) of Greece in terms of expected macroseismic intensities at each one of these sites. In this procedure several new results are taken into account: source parameters based on new research work on seismicity and on other relative information (new regionalization and improved seismicity data parameters and anisotropic radiation at the seismic source), a new relation for the attenuation of macroseismic intensities, and the effect of local conditions (site effects) on the strong-ground motion.

Analytic relations and tables, determined by this procedure, permit the reliable assessment of time-independent hazard, in terms of macroseismic intensity (in MM scale), peak-horizontal-ground acceleration, and velocity at each one of these 144 sites and at any probability level.

Time-dependent hazard has been also assessed for these 144 broad sites in Greece, in terms of the probability for the occurrence of strong ground-motion with macroseismic intensity I VII (in MM scale) at each one of these sites during the period 1996–2010. Comparison of the assessed time dependent hazard with observed macroseismic intensities of the period 1950–1995 indicates that the time-dependent model gives very reasonable results.