HOME HELP FEEDBACK SUBSCRIPTIONS ARCHIVE SEARCH TABLE OF CONTENTS		QUICK SEARCH:   [advanced] Author: Keyword(s): Year:  Vol:  Page:

This Article Full Text (PDF) References Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Alert me to new issues of the journal Download to citation manager Citing Articles Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by Sun, J. Articles by Pan, T.-C. Search for Related Content GeoRef GeoRef Citation

The probability of very large earthquakes in Sumatra

School of Civil and Structural Engineering Nanyang Technological University, Nanyang Avenue, Singapore 2263 Republic of Singapore

Abstract

This article presents the results of a preliminary investigation into the risk of very large earthquakes in Sumatra. Data for the study were taken from the Earthquake Data Base System of the National Earthquake Information Center, U.S. Geological Survey. In determining the recurrence interval of large earthquakes, the method of Dong et al. (1984) based on the maximum entropy principle was used. If the maximum magnitude of possible earthquakes in Sumatra is assumed to be 8.75, 9.0, or unlimited, the recurrence interval of a magnitude 8.5 earthquake is found to be 430, 283, or 204 yr, respectively. For the three cases, the magnitude of an earthquake with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 yr is determined to be 8.52, 8.64, and 8.85, respectively, on the assumption of Poisson's distribution for earthquake occurrence. The results imply that the risk of a very large earthquake is high in Sumatra, and its consequences on the distant metropolitan areas on the Malay Peninsula should be investigated in further research.