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Nonstationary Poisson model for earthquake occurrences

Department of Civil Engineering National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan 701, R.O.C.
Sinotech Engineering Consultants, Inc., Taipei, Taiwan, 110, R.O.C.

Abstract

A nonstationary Poisson model describing the occurrences of clustering earthquakes is developed. This model, characterized by a U-shape mean-occurrence-rate function, simulates the decreasing, nearly constant, and increasing variations of the mean occurrence rates at the instants soon after the last event in the current cluster, in the waiting period between the current and the next clusters, and just before the next cluster, respectively. The parameters of such a U-shape function are determined empirically from the earthquake catalog. A simple example is presented to show the difference in the estimated mean occurrence rate and in the induced seismic risk between different Poisson occurrence models.

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