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Abstract
We combine geodetic, geologic, and seismic information to estimate frequencies of damaging earthquakes in three types of seismotectonic zone. Type A zones contain faults for which paleoseismic data suffice to estimate conditional probabilities. Type B zones contain faults with insufficient data for conditional probability analysis. Type C zones contain diverse or hidden faults. Each zone is assumed to have randomly distributed earthquakes plus characteristic earthquakes on specific faults. Our "cascade" model allows for multiple-segment earthquakes. Within each zone, distributed earthquakes are assumed uniform in time and space, with a truncated Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution. Thus, seismic hazard is defined by the characteristic earthquake rate, the rate of all distributed events, and the limiting (characteristic) magnitude. Limiting magnitudes are determined from fault lengths, while earthquake rates are determined by observed seismicity and seismic moment rate.
We present a preferred seismic hazard model with lognormal recurrence and an alternate Poissonian model. The models predict 80 to 90% probability of an m 
7 earthquake within southern California before 2024. The 17 January 1994 Northridge earthquake occurred within the 13% of southern California's area having the highest moment rate density. The probability of 0.2 g or greater shaking before 2024 exceeds 60% in the Ventura and San Bernardino areas, and 50% throughout the Transverse Ranges between Santa Barbara and San Bernardino.
The predicted seismicity exceeds that observed historically. This may imply that (1) we underestimate the maximum magnitudes, (2) significant strain may be released aseismically, or (3) seismicity may have been anomalously low since 1850.
Footnotes
1 Principal Authors: D. D. Jackson, K. Aki, C. A. Cornell, J. H. Dieterich, T. L. Henyey, M. Mahdyiar, D. Schwartz, and S. N. Ward.
2 Contributors: D. Agnew, G. Davis, J. Davis, J. Dolan, P. Flores, M. Forrest, E. Hauksson, T. Heaton, G. Huftile, I. M. Idriss, K. Jackson, P. Jennings, L. Jones, Y. Kagan, E. Lehmer, K. McNally, J. McRaney, B. Minster, S. Park, M. Petersen, M. Reichle, T. Rockwell, S. Salyards, J. Savage, K. Sieh, J. Suppe, P. Ward, R. Weldon, S. Wesnousky, and R. Yeats.
3 Coordinated by the Southern California Earthquake Center, on behalf of the United States Geological Survey and the California Office of Emergency Services. The Southern California Earthquake Center is a National Science Foundation Science and Technology Center.
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S. G. Wesnousky Crustal deformation processes and the stability of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, August 1, 1999; 89(4): 1131 - 1137. [Abstract] [PDF]
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B. F. Howell Jr. Patterns of seismic activity after three great earthquakes in the light of Reid's elastic rebound theory Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, February 1, 1997; 87(1): 50 - 60. [Abstract] [PDF]
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M. D. Petersen, W. A. Bryant, C. H. Cramer, M. S. Reichle, and C. R. Real Seismic ground-motion hazard mapping incorporating site effects for Los Angeles, Orange, and Ventura counties, California: A geographical information system application Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, February 1, 1997; 87(1): 249 - 255. [Abstract] [PDF]
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T. L. Teng and J. Qu Long-period ground motions and dynamic strain field of Los Angeles basin during large earthquakes Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, October 1, 1996; 86(5): 1417 - 1433. [Abstract] [PDF]
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E. H. Field Spectral amplification in a sediment-filled Valley exhibiting clear basin-edge-induced waves Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, August 1, 1996; 86(4): 991 - 1005. [Abstract] [PDF]
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H. Magistrale, K. McLaughlin, and S. Day A geology-based 3D velocity model of the Los Angeles basin sediments Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, August 1, 1996; 86(4): 1161 - 1166. [Abstract] [PDF]
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K. B. Olsen and R. J. Archuleta Three-dimensional simulation of earthquakes on the Los Angeles fault system Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, June 1, 1996; 86(3): 575 - 596. [Abstract] [PDF]
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N. A. Abrahamson, E. Glowacka, and F. A. Nava Major earthquakes in Mexicali Valley, Mexico, and fluid extraction at Cerro Prieto Geothermal Field Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, February 1, 1996; 86(1A): 93 - 105. [Abstract] [PDF]
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J. N. Brune Precariously balanced rocks and ground-motion maps for Southern California Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, February 1, 1996; 86(1A): 43 - 54. [Abstract] [PDF]
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Y. Y. Kagan Comment on "The Gutenberg-Richter or characteristic earthquake distribution, which is it?" by Steven G. Wesnousky Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, February 1, 1996; 86(1A): 274 - 285. [PDF]
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M. D. Petersen, C. H. Cramer, W. A. Bryant, M. S. Reichle, and T. R. Toppozada Preliminary seismic hazard assessment for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Orange counties, California, affected by the 17 January 1994 Northridge earthquake Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, February 1, 1996; 86(1B): S247 - S261. [Abstract] [PDF]
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L. Hutchings and S. Jarpe Ground-motion variability at the Highway 14 and I-5 interchange in the northern San Fernando Valley Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, February 1, 1996; 86(1B): S289 - S299. [Abstract] [PDF]
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