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Application of the bootstrap method to quantify uncertainty in seismic hazard estimates

LAVALIN INC., 1100 WEST RENE LEVESQUE BLVD., MONTREAL, QUEBEC, Canada, H3B 4P3
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING STANFORD UNIVERSITY, STANFORD, CALIFORNIA 94305-4020
AT&T BELL LABORATORIES, ROOM 2-D-554, MURRAY HILL, NEW JERSEY 07974

Abstract

This paper describes a methodology to assess the uncertainty in seismic hazard estimates at particular sites. A variant of the bootstrap statistical method is used to combine the uncertainty due to earthquake catalog incompleteness, earthquake magnitude, and recurrence and attenuation models used. The uncertainty measure is provided in the form of a confidence interval. Comparisons of this method applied to various sites in California with previous studies are used to confirm the validity of the method.

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				V. F. Pisarenko, A. A. Lyubushin, V. B. Lysenko, and T. V. Golubeva Statistical estimation of seismic hazard parameters: Maximum possible magnitude and related parameters Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, June 1, 1996; 86(3): 691 - 700. [Abstract] [PDF]