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Temporal and magnitude dependence in earthquake recurrence models

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING STANFORD UNIVERSITY, STANFORD, CALIFORNIA 94305

Abstract

The effects of temporal and magnitude dependence among seismic recurrences, which are ignored in the conventional Poisson earthquake model, are studied. The potential impact of non-Poissonian assumptions on practical hazard estimates are considered. A broad set of recurrence models with memory are analyzed using convenient second-moment time-magnitude statistics to parameterize a general class of semi-Markov models. The conventional time- and slip-predictable models are included and studied as special cases. Conditions are identified under which the Poisson model provides a sufficient engineering hazard estimate (i.e., either conservative or unconservative by a factor of no more than three). Cases in which the Poisson estimate is insufficient are limited practically to those in which the hazard is controlled by a single feature for which the elapsed time since the last significant event exceeds the average time between such events. Moreover, this situation creates a problem only if events on the fault show strongly regular, "characteristic time" behavior.

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