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Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America; June 1988; v. 78; no. 3; p. 1268-1278
© 1988 Seismological Society of America
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Tsunami hazard probability in Japan

T. RIKITAKE and I. AIDA

ASSOCIATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION, 3, KANDA MITOSHIRO-CHO, CHIYODA-KU, TOKYO, Japan

Abstract

An analysis of future tsunami hazard on the coast of the Japanese Islands is made in terms of probability for a coastal site being hit by a tsunami, of which the wave height exceeds a certain level during a period from 2000 to 2010. Tsunami wave height at a site on the Pacific coast is estimated mostly based on numerical experiment, in which a typical fault model of the tsunami-generating earthquake is assumed. Meanwhile, probability of the tsunami-generating earthquake occurring during 2000 to 2010 is evaluated either from historical data of earthquake occurrence or from near-shore crustal strain accumulation.

Combining the wave height estimate with the probability evaluation of tsunami occurrence, probabilities of a site being hit by a tsunami, of which the wave height exceeds certain levels, are evaluated on the Pacific coast. It seems that the probability for a violent tsunami, of which the wave height exceeds 5 m, is highest along the Pacific coast in central Japan, reaching a value of 41 per cent. On the other hand, a probability value as high as 69 per cent is found for a moderately large tsunami having a wave height of 1 m or so along the Shikoku and Kyushu coasts.

A crude probability evaluation is also made for tsunamis on the Japan Sea coast, where tsunami activity is substantially lower than that of the Pacific coast. The probability for a violent tsunami seems to amount to only 1 per cent or so for a 10-yr period. Similar probabilities for tsunamis excited by a distant source off Peru, Chile, Kamchatka, and Aleutian-Alaska are also evaluated. In this case, probabilities of tsunami wave height exceeding 1 and 3 m are, respectively, evaluated as 19 and 15 per cent on the Pacific coast, such probabilities being not quite negligible.




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E. L. Geist, V. V. Titov, D. Arcas, F. F. Pollitz, and S. L. Bilek
Implications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake on Tsunami Forecast and Assessment Models for Great Subduction-Zone Earthquakes
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, January 1, 2007; 97(1A): S249 - S270.
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H. ACHARYA
Comment on "Tsunami hazard probability in Japan" by T. Rikitake and I. Aida
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, February 1, 1990; 80(1): 226 - 228.
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T. RIKITAKE and I. AIDA
Reply to Hemendra Acharya's "comment on tsunami hazard probability in Japan"
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, February 1, 1990; 80(1): 229 - 231.
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