Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
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Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America; August 1986; v. 76; no. 4; p. 1001-1009
© 1986 Seismological Society of America
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Periodic energy release in the New Madrid seismic zone

DEAN J. MENTO*, C. PATRICK ERVIN and L. D. MCGINNIS

DEPARTMENT OF GEOLOGY NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY, DEKALB, ILLINOIS 60115
EES-362 ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY, 9700 SOUTH CASS AVENUE, ARGONNE, ILLINOIS 60439

Abstract

The annual release of strain energy by earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone, as represented by the strain factor, is calculated and cumulated. When the main annual energy release, in the form of a linear regression, is subtracted from the data, the residual curve suggests that the energy release rate is cyclical with a period of 30 to 35 yr for earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or less. Furthermore, the current rate is well below normal and may be expected to significantly increase in the near future. Although the increase may be in the form of several small earthquakes, the historical pattern suggests that at least one earthquake of body-wave magnitude 5.0 to 5.2 may be anticipated.

Footnotes

* Present address: Amoco Production Co., Houston, Texas 77253.




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L. W. Wolf, C. A. Rowe, and R. B. Horner
Periodic seismicity near Mt. Ogden on the Alaska-British Columbia border: A case for hydrologically triggered earthquakes?
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, December 1, 1997; 87(6): 1473 - 1483.
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R. STREET
Comment on "periodic energy release in the new madrid seismic zone" by Dean J. Mento, C. Patrick Ervin, and L. D. McGinnis
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, October 1, 1987; 77(5): 1868 - 1868.
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