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Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America; December 1985; v. 75; no. 6; p. 1669-1679
© 1985 Seismological Society of America
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Foreshocks and time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment in southern California

LUCILE M. JONES

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY SEISMOLOGICAL LABORATORY CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, PASADENA, CALIFORNIA 91125

Abstract

The probability that an earthquake in southern California (M greater double equals 3.0) will be followed by an earthquake of larger magnitude within 5 days and 10 km (i.e., will be a foreshock) is 6 ± 0.5 per cent (1 S.D.), and is not significantly dependent on the magnitude of the possible foreshock between M = 3 and M = 5. The probability that an earthquake will be followed by an M greater double equals 5.0 main shock, however, increases with magnitude of the foreshock from less than 1 per cent at M greater double equals 3 to 6.5 ± 2.5 per cent (1 S.D.) at M greater double equals 5. The main shock will most likely occur in the first hour after the foreshock, and the probability that a main shock will occur decreases with elapsed time from the occurrence of the possible foreshock by approximately the inverse of time. Thus, the occurrence of an earthquake of M greater double equals 3.0 in southern California increases the earthquake hazard within a small space-time window several orders of magnitude above the normal background level.




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