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Terms for expressing earthquake potential, prediction, and probability

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, 345 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MENLO PARK, CALIFORNIA 94025
CALIFORNIA DIVISION OF MINES AND GEOLOGY, SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA 95814
C. F. RICHTER SEISMOLOGICAL LABORATORY UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SANTA CRUZ, CALIFORNIA 95064

Abstract

Terms for expressing earthquake potential and prediction include two main categories, "long-term earthquake potential" and "earthquake prediction." Earthquake prediction is subdivided into three categories "long-term prediction," "intermediate-term prediction," and "short-term prediction." Long-term prediction is not subdivided, but two terms, "watch" and "forecast," are recognized as having similar meanings. "Short-term prediction" is subdivided into "alert" and "imminent alert." The subdivisions of earthquake prediction are based on different time frames.

Earthquake potential or probability can be expressed either numerically or verbally according to a variety of schemes.

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