Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
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Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America; December 1981; v. 71; no. 6; p. 1929-1931
© 1981 Seismological Society of America
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A simple way to look at a Bayesian model for the statistics of earthquake prediction

JOHN G. ANDERSON

INSTITUTE OF GEOPHYSICS AND PLANETARY PHYSICS DEPARTMENT OF APPLIED MECHANICS AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA,, SAN DIEGO, LA JOLLA, CALIFORNIA 92093

Abstract

A simple urn model is presented for earthquake prediction statistics. This model is equivalent to the Bayesian models of Collins (1977), Guagenti and Scirocco (1980), and Kijko (1981).






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