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Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America; December 1980; v. 70; no. 6; p. 2245-2251
© 1980 Seismological Society of America
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A discussion of seismic risk including precursors

E. GRANDORI GUAGENTI and F. SCIROCCO

POLITECNICO DI MILANO ISTITUTO DI SCIENZA E TECNICA DELLE COSTRUZIONI, 20133 MILANO, Italy

Abstract

Precursor events are included in a Poisson process of earthquake occurrence, introducing the useful warning time {Delta} t from the precursor to the earthquake. Their probabilistic significance is discussed, depending on the probabilities of false and missed forecasts.




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