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SIERRA GEOPHYSICS, INC., 150 NORTH SANTA ANITA AVENUE, ARCADIA, CALIFORNIA 91006
SEISMOLOGICAL LABORATORY CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, PASADENA, CALIFORNIA 91125
Abstract
The estimation of potential strong ground motions at short epicentral distances (
= 10 to 25 km) resulting from large earthquakes, M 
6.5, generally requires extrapolation of a limited data set. The goal of this project has been to quantify the extrapolation through a simulation technique that relies heavily upon the more extensive data set from smaller magnitude earthquakes. The simulation utilizes the smaller events as Green's functions for the elements of a larger fault. Comparison of the simulated peak acceleration and duration with the data from the Parkfield earthquake is very good. Simulation of three earthquakes, M = 5.5, 6.5, and 7.0 indicate that the slope of the peak acceleration versus distance curve ( = 5 to 25 km) flattens, for strike-slip earthquakes, as the magnitude increases.
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