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INSTITUTO DE INVESTIGACIONES EN MATEMATICAS APPLICADAS Y EN SISTEMAS UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTONOMA DE MEXICO, APARTADO POSTAL 20-726, MEXICO 20, DF Mexico
DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS, URBANA, ILLINOIS 61801
Abstract
A stochastic model of strain accumulation and release at plate boundaries is proposed. The model leads to the generalized Gutenberg-Richter relation
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where G is the cumulative exceedence of a magnitude x. This relation tends asymptotically to the original Gutenberg-Richter relation in the low-magnitude range; at high magnitudes it provides estimates of the probability of occurrence which are significantly more realistic than the Gutenberg-Richter relation. Excellent agreement is obtained with the data of the Chinese earthquake catalog covering a time period of 2,753 years.
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