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The time distribution of the reservoir-associated foreshocks and its importance to the prediction of the principal shock

SEISMOLOGICAL INSTITUTE NATIONAL OBSERVATORY OF ATHENS, ATHENS, Greece

Abstract

The time distribution in the occurrence of foreshocks of the Kremasta, Koyna, and Kariba large earthquakes, which are believed to be associated with artificial lakes, has been studied. The relation, n(t)dt = n_o(–t)^–hdt, fits the data well. The values of the parameter h are between 1.5 and 2.6, and the durations of the foreshock sequences are of the order of several months. The possibility of using this relation to predict the time of occurrence of the principal earthquakes associated with artificial lakes is examined, and the importance of systematic investigation of the time distribution of foreshocks for controlling the earthquake risk is noted.