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The "little variable factor"¹ a statistical discussion of the reading of seismograms

SEISMOGRAPHIC STATION UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA

Abstract

A number of independent readings of "typical" seismographic records are made, primarily in order to estimate the errors involved in determining the onset of a P wave. The degree of consistency with which a disturbance is called "the first arrival from an earthquake" is discussed. The distribution of reading errors is estimated and a method suggested for improving the accuracy of routine reading of seismograms. This model provides estimates for reading errors of several types of onsets. Finally the classification of onsets into "i" and "e" is shown to be inadequately defined.

Footnotes

¹ Rep. Holifield: "Then at 2,200 kilometers the same shot (Blanca seismogram) shows a down motion?" Dr. Carder: "To most people, yes. In my own case, I have looked long enough at those things that I would call it up." Rep. Holifield: "You would call it up?" Dr. Carder: "I would call it up, but most people would call it down." Rep. Holifield: "So we have a little variable factor in the interpretation of the reader also to consider." Dr. Carder: "That is correct. I would say there is quite a bit of intuition involved." Senator Bennett: "Mr. Chairman, beauty still lies in the eyes of the beholder."

(... from the Hearings on Technical Aspects of Detection and Inspection Controls of a Nuclear Weapons Test Ban, 86 Congress 32nd Session 1960.)

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