Figure 9. Plot of cumulative seismic-moment release with time over the study region, based on preferred moment estimates for each earthquake. Lines show possible release rates: r₁ gives an average rate since 1857 (7.64 x 10²⁵ dyne cm/yr); r₂ gives an average rate since 1871 (8.52 x 10²⁵ dyne cm/yr); r₃ gives the slip-predictable bound (6.15 x 10²⁵ dyne cm/yr); and r₄ gives the time-predictable bound (8.84 x 10²⁵ dyne cm/yr). The time- and slip-predictable models of moment release usually apply to a single fault, and extending the concepts to a region with multiple faults does not have the physical relationship to stress and friction as in the model by Shimazaki and Nakata (1980).